Battle by the Bay

The Raptors play the 2nd half of a back-to-back at Golden State this evening.

Based on individual player/coach match-ups:

 

STARTERS

 

PG
OG
SF
PF
C

RAPTORS

Calderon
Parker
Moon
Bargnani

Nesterovic

Advantage

= = = = =
= = = = =
———>
= = = = =
= = = = =

WARRIORS 

Davis
Ellis
Jackson

Pietrus

Biedrins

KEY SUBS

PG
G/F
F
PF/C

Ford
Delfino
Kapono
Humphries

<—-
= = = = =
       —->
= = = = =

Watson/Ellis
Azubuike

Barnes

Harrington &
Croshere

COACH

 

Mitchell

———–>

Nelson

this might be THE game that Toronto can steal on its extended road-trip.

Jose Calderon is well-rested after only playing 20 minutes last night against the Lakers.


If he can use his size & strength to neutralize the natural advantages Baron Davis has when matched-up against many of the other PG’s in the league

 

AND


Sam Mitchell actually uses Kris Humphries (for substantial minutes/25+) vs the combination of Harrington & Croshere


this could be a highly entertaining game that finishes with a final score closer than the current wagering line suggests … i.e. GSW -10.


If you’re watching live tonight ,,, keep your eye tuned to the Rebounding Differential, where the Warriors are 30th in the NBA; and, the Raptors are 22nd.

If Toronto wins the ‘Battle of the Boards’ so, too, can the Raptors win this game outright.

 

UPDATE(s): Also note that this is G-State’s 1st game @ home after returning from an East Coast road-trip of their own … which is frequently a situation that a ‘live underdog’ – like Toronto is tonight – can take advantage of.

 

08:22, 1st/Q … GSW 12, Tor 4 … it looks as though Calderon is going to be assigned to check Monta Ellis, not Baron Davis; which puts AP on the Warriors’ main man. This is Not the move the Raps should make in this type of match-up.

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11 Responses to “Battle by the Bay”

  1. Sports Blogging » Blog Archive » Battle by the Bay Says:

    […] post by khandor Bookmark and Share:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and […]

  2. Melvin Says:

    the advantage almost all goes to the warriors dude

  3. NBA Betting Expert Says:

    Khandor,

    Thanks for posting a comment on my blog. 🙂 Sorry, I’ve been busy blogging and haven’t had the time to really go through the other interesting blogs. But since you’ve brought the attention, I’ve had the chance to peruse yours. Nice one too. 🙂 Maybe I can help you earn a bit from blogging. 🙂

  4. NBA Betting Expert Says:

    Also, I really believe the Warriors also have the advantage, especially without a key player like Bosh in the line up. Pietrus and Biedrins will eat Bargnani and Nesterovic alive! If they don’t stop Baron Davis and Monta Ellis driving in the lane, the guards will drop off to Pietrus or Biedrins during the switch and just create mayhem Bargnani and Nesterovic aren’t really the most agile of players.

    Toronto will have most of their shots come off screens, especially since their guards aren’t really the penetrating/slashing kind. And then, they’re playing on the road at unfamiliar ranges. That’s tough. It’ll take a while before they get an offensive streak going, and it’s just so hard to score in Golden State territory. The fans alone will rock you!

    Anyway, if you have to make a bet even to cover the spread, i’ll go with the home team. 🙂

  5. khandor Says:

    Melvin,

    Thanks for your comment. 🙂

  6. khandor Says:

    NBABE,

    Always interested in earning $$$. 🙂

  7. khandor Says:

    My top play on the NBA board from last night was … Houston -4.5, which came thru in spades. 🙂

  8. Basketball » Battle by the Bay Says:

    […] khandor wrote a fantastic post today on “Battle by the Bay”Here’s ONLY a quick extractThe Raptors play the 2nd half of a back-to-back at Golden State this evening. Based on individual player/coach match-ups:. STARTERS. PG OG SF PF C, RAPTORS. Calderon Parker Moon Bargnani. Nesterovic. Advantage. = = = = = = = = = = … […]

  9. arsenalist Says:

    Why do Davis and Ellis have === when compared with Parker and Calderon? Both GS teammates have a significant advantage over their Raptor counterparts.

  10. khandor Says:

    Arsenalist,

    Welcome aboard! 🙂

    That’s a terrific question you just asked … and the answer largely depends on how you see the game being played, on several different and simultaneous levels … e.g. within anticipated 1-on-1 match-ups, based upon: (i) quickness relative to a specific position; (ii) size, strength & explosive power; (iii) specific skill sets (on D, O or in terms of Rebounding); (iv) exclusively, according to game stats; (v) incorporating subtleties not observed immediately via game stats.

    When considering the Davis/Calderon and Ellis/Parker match-ups, I see specific areas of strength and weakness for each of the two Raptors vs their respective counterparts, that balance out to ‘equals’ signs in both relationships.

    If Calderon checks Davis … with Jose’s size & strength, he effectively neutralizes Davis’ major advantage which is posting up vs smaller guards in the NBA (e.g. TJ Ford) and taking bigger players to the hoop off the bounce. As you saw last night, when Calderon checked Davis at different times during the the last 5 minutes or so, Baron was not able to post-up vs him and the Raptors did not have to send the double team at him (unlike when the Raptors had him checked by Ford, and he abused TJ, right away, every trip). Alas, this was not the match-up Sam Mitchell chose to go with from the outset of the game. 😦

    If Parker checks Ellis … although Monta has a definite ‘quickness’ advantage over him, AP has enough ‘quicks’, in conjunction with his size (that is not too big), reach & strength advantage to counter-balance effectively what Ellis loves to do the most … which is not take the ball all the way to the rim & finish but to cross his check, create ‘space’ and pull-up quickly for what amounts to an ‘uncontested’ mid-range jump-shot (that is made much more troublesome vs a defender like AP, when compared to a defender like Calderon). Alas, this was not the match-up that Sam Mitchell chose to go with from the outset of the game.

    How each player actually performed, statistically, in last night’s game was of little consequence to me, as far as assessing whether or not the perceptions I held about these two sets of individual player match-ups were true or fase, since they didn’t spend very many possessions going at each other in the Raptors’ end.

    Conversely, when the ball was in the Warriors’ end, it was my perception that Ellis would not be able to deter AP’s jump-shot, whether off the catch or the bounce, as he is just too small to deal with the strength of Parker’s game; and, Davis would not be a major deterrent to the scoring opportunities available for Calderon coming off the Raptors constant ‘Pick & Rolls/Pops’, plus the spot-ups Jose gets from their Drive & Kick game (as Baron simply does not do a good job closing out hard against anyone who he is checking 1-on-1).

    There’s the explanation for you … unfortunately gone-for-naught as Sam chose to go in a different direction defensively for this game … to the tune of 117 pts for the Warriors. 😦

  11. Raptors @ Warriors … post mortem « Khandor’s Sports Blog Says:

    […] Khandor’s Sports Blog « Battle by the Bay […]

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