The 2008-2009 NBA regular season schedule has reached the 1/4 pole, as all 30 teams have played at least 20 games. Given the history of this league and …
… it is helpful to evaluate where they rank against one another at this juncture.
QUALITY RATING & QUALITY INDEX RANKING
NBA 2008-2009 [as of Mon Dec 15 2008]
Team
W/L
Win%
PDR
PAR
RDR
QR
QIR
EC
WC
Cavaliers
20/4
.833
1
1
3
5
1
2
Celtics
23/2
.920
3
2
1
6
2
1
Hornets
13/7
.650
6
3
10
19
3
4
Blazers
15/10
.600
10
9
1
20
T-4
7
Rockets
15/9
.625
8
5
7
20
T-4
5
Lakers
20/3
.870
2
14
6
22
6
1
Spurs
15/8
.652
7
6
11
24
7
3
76ers
10/14
.417
16
8
4
28
11
Jazz
15/11
.577
9
11
9
29
8
8
Mavericks
13/10
.625
11
16
7
34
9
Nuggets
17/7
.708
4
15
16
35
9
2
Hawks
15/9
.625
12
7
17
36
10
4
Magic
19/6
.760
5
10
24
39
11
3
Bucks
11/15
.423
18
17
5
40
10
Pistons
13/9
.591
14
12
22
48
12
5
Suns
15/10
.600
13
22
14
49
13
6
Bobcats
7/18
.280
24
4
22
50
14
Heat
12/12
.500
15
13
25
53
14
7
Nets
12/11
.522
20
24
12
56
15
6
Bulls
11/12
.478
17
21
18
56
16
8
Pacers
8/16
.333
21
25
13
59
13
Grizzlies
9/15
.375
22
18
19
59
10
Timberwolves
4/20
.167
28
23
14
65
14
Clippers
6/17
.261
25
19
25
69
13
Raptors
10/14
.417
23
20
30
73
12
Thunder
2/23
.080
30
26
20
76
15
Knicks
11/13
.458
19
29
28
76
9
Kings
7/18
.280
29
28
20
77
11
Wizards
4/18
.182
27
27
27
81
15
Warriors
7/18
.261
26
30
29
85
12
Legend: W-L – Won Loss Record; Win% - Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Rank; PAR – Points Allowed Rank; RDR – Rebound Differential Rank; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking; EC – Eastern Conference Playoff Position; WC – Western Conference Playoff Position
Note: 1. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion and Finalist has had a QR ≤ 34.
2. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion has had a QIR ≤ #9.
3. Since 2000-2001 7 of the 8 NBA Champions have had a QIR ≤ #4.
Take note of where your favourite team stands today … and where it will need to get to, over the course of the next five months, in order to be considered a legit contender for the 2009 NBA Championship.
The NBA’s regular season schedule is now in full swing with each team having played a minimum of 13 games.
As was mentioned earlier in this space, there are three tiers of teams in this League that reveal themselves on an annual basis:
1. HIGH END [above a .549 Win %]
2. MIDDLE-of-the-Pack [between a .450-.549 Win %]
3. LOW END [below a .450 Win %]
At this point, here’s what each team’s W-L record is, in conjunction with their respective Rebounding Differential Ranking [which regular readers here know is a crucial factor towards playoff success]:
HIGH END
1 LA Lakers 12-1/.923; +5.00/#3 2 Boston 14-2/.875; +3.43/#7
3 Cleveland 12-3/.750; +4.33/#5 4 Phoenix 11-5/.688; -0.25/#14 T5 Detroit 9-5/.643; +0.92/#11 T5 Atlanta 9-5/.643; -0.42/#16
T5 Orlando 12-4/.643; -0.37/#15 T5 New Orleans 9-5/.643; +0.07/#13
T9 Utah 10-6/.625; +3.50/#6
T9 Portland 10-6/.625; +4.37/#4
T9 Houston 10-6/.625; +2.06/#9 T9 Denver 10-6/.625; -0.43/#17
13 San Antonio 8-6/.571; -2.28/#24 *
MIDDLE
T14 Dallas 7-7/.500; +3.07/#8
T14 New Jersey 7-7/.500; +0.21/#12
T14 Toronto 7-7/.500; -2.14/#23
T17 Miami 7-8/.467; -5.26/#28
T17 Philadelphia 6-7/.467; +6.33/#1
T17 New York 7-8/.467; -7.20/#30
LOW END
20 Chicago 7-9/.438; -1.31/#19
21 Indiana 6-8/.429; +1.00/#10
22 Milwaukee 7-10/.412; +5.58/#2
23 Golden State 5-10/.333; -3.20/#26
24 Sacramento 5-12/.294; -1.64/#20
25 Memphis 4-11/.267; -2.40/#25
26 Charlotte 4-10/.286; -2.07/#22
27 Minnesota 3-10/.231; -1.30/#18
28 Washington 2-11/.154; -3.46/#27
29 LA Clippers/2-13/.133; -5.53/#29
30 Oklahoma City 1-15/.063; -1.81/#21
* Have played mostly without Ginobili-M and Parker-T, thus far.
When this corner of the sports blogosphere told you earlier this fall/summer that the Raptors trade for Jermaine O’Neal was not going to be enough, by itself, to fundamentally improve Toronto’s Rebounding Deficiency from the last few seasons there were boatloads of delusional fans some who did not want to believe this specific assessment of this team, in advance of actually seeing real live NBA games this season with their own two eyes.
—————–
How could the acquisition of a former 6-time NBA All-Star …
in exchange for a smallish, erractic [but talented] Point Guard [i.e. TJ Ford], an over-the-hill, lumbering, strictly speaking part-time Center [i.e. Rasho Nesterovic], the 15th player from their roster last season [i.e. Maceo Baston], and a flip-flop of the No. 17 [overall] and No. 41 Draft Picks from the 2008 NBA Draft, who turned out to be Roy Hibbert [C] and Nathan Jawai [C], respectively …
possibly NOT improve the Raptors decidely mediocre rebounding numbers from the last few years in any significant way, shape or form?
—————–
Well … as of Thursday, November 6, 2008 the Basketball Acumen of this specific correspondent seems to be as sharp [and accurate] as ever:
When a certain NBA observer tells you something about ‘How the Game actually Works in this League’, in advance … it might well be in your best interests to believe what this person has to say, even though you are not able to fully comprehend it, at that point in time.
—————–
“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” – Anonymous
1 Los Angeles Lakers [W1] … A Legendary season awaits
2 Boston Celtics [E1] … Still the Champs
3 Detroit Pistons [E2] … Bad Boyz II, under MC [Hammer]
4 Phoenix Suns [W2] … Sunrise, Sunset, under TP
5 Utah Jazz [W3] … Tried & True
6 Houston Rockets [W4] … Combustible on any given night
7 Dallas Mavericks [W5] … letting Freedom Reign, under RC
8 Orlando Magic [E3] … holding strong with new additions
9 New Orleans Hornets [W6] … due for a small slip backwards
10 Portland Trail Blazers [W7] … The 2nd Coming begins
11 Cleveland Cavaliers [E4] … The King is in the house
12 Philadelphia 76ers [E5] … major moves this off-season
13 San Antonio Spurs [W8] … a struggle without Manu
14 Denver Nuggets [W9] … re-tooling their defense
15 Chicago Bulls [E6] … expect big things from VDN & ‘Mr. Rose’
The NBA’s pre-season schedulae of games is rapidly coming to a close.
In general, how a team fares in its pre-season games … in this League, at least … provides a preliminary indication of where it actually stands, relative to the competition, heading into the new campaign.
Annually, there are three major categories of teams in the NBA:
what you see, with only 4 days left, is generally speaking fairly representative of what you should now expect to get over the course of the 82-game regular season from these teams, in a broad sense.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Above .549 Orlando, Detroit, Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia
.450-.549 Indiana, New York, Toronto
Below .450 Chicago, New Jersey, Washington [playing without Arenas], Cleveland [playing few minutes with LBJ] , Miami, Milwaukee, Charlotte
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Above .549 New Orleans, Minnesota, Denver, Houston, LA Lakers, Phoenix, Golden State, LA Clippers, Portland, Utah
.450-.549 Dallas, San Antonio [playing with Ginobili]
Below .450 Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento
——————————————-
Although it’s not uncommon for a team to shift from the High End to the Middle over the course of the regular season; it is rare for a team to move from the High End to the Low End … and vice versa … once the regular season starts unless, of course, it has to play [or is playing currently] without 1 or more of its marquee players for an extending number of games.
What is usually the most interesting thing to see, however, over the course of the 82-game regular season, is which few teams are able to elevate their performance (i) from the Middle into the High End, and (ii) from the Low End into the Middle … automatically making them one of the ‘Feel Good’ stories of the year; and, which few teams, if any, will go in the opposite direction … automatically making them one of the ‘Biggest Disappointment’ stories.
Into which specific category does it look as though your favourite team is going to fit this season?
High End now that stays in the High End
High End now that drops down into the Middle
Middle now that steps up into the High End
Middle now that stays in the Middle
Middle now that drops down into the Low End
Low End now that steps up into the Middle
Low End now that stays in the Low End
For those who came of age through the 1970′s & early 1980′s … it doesn’t get any better than this … as the ‘White Shadow‘ profiles Julius Winfield Erving, II.
Part I
Part II
Part III
youtube.com is absolute Gold … when it comes to things like …
Since the 2005-2006 season, the 76ers have undergone a thorough make-over … divesting themselves of Jim O’Brien (Head Coach), Allen Iverson (G), Chris Webber (C) and their former GM (Billy King), in favour of Mo Cheeks, Andre Miller, Thaddeus Young and Ed Stefanski, respectively.
This off-season … by re-signing their own key Free Agents (i.e. Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala) and bringing in a group of solid new players (i.e. Elton Brand, Royal Ivey, Theo Ratliff and Marshall) … the 76ers have attempted to push forward into a new stratosphere, in the NBA, as one of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference … alongside the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons.
How far can the Sixers go this year?
If they can remain healthy … Philadelphia is now good enough to qualify for its second consecutive playoff berth and become a serious threat to advance to the EC semifinals.
After a scintilating regular season schedule which saw:
* The single greatest W-L turn-around in the history of the NBA
* The 2nd Longest Winning Streak in the history of the NBA
* The fiercest battle to make the Western Conference Playoffs in the history of the NBA
* 3 seismic shifting in-season trades involving marquee players
* The Resurgence of the NBA’s two most notable franchises
What could possibly lie ahead in the post-season?
1st Round match-ups begin later today … Where Amazing Happens!
The best Defense in the NBA. Committed to Rebounding. Share the ball on Offense as well as any team in the league. 3 All-Star players (i.e. Garnett, Pierce & Allen-R) and a plethora of effective ‘role guys’ off the bench. Have everything it takes to win the NBA championship this year. The clear-cut favourite.
Return to the post-season after a 9-year absence. Solid ‘Starting 5’ (i.e. Bibby, Johnson, Smith, Williams & Horford) and a commitment to Rebounding. Bench players are not strong enough to compete successfully at this level. Will be fortunate to win a game. A major underdog.
Who will win
Boston in 4 … although the Hawks will put up a solid fight in their home games (25-16).
Despite the presence of Lebron James, have regressed as a group from last season, especially on Defense. Verajao & Pavlovic still not fully recovered from early-season holdouts. Rebounding is still first rate.Excellent depth in the front-court.Lack cohesiveness overall and are stagnant on Offense (i.e. dependent on LBJ). Not as quick or as hungry as last year’s team.
Under-rated as group. Roster filled with athletic, talented and hard-working players with good length. Versatile. Can create match-up advantages at each of the 5 positions, depending on need. 3 top notch Scorers (i.e. Butler, Jamison & Arenas), several good Defenders (i.e. Daniels, Steveson & Haywood) and a willingness to Rebound, as a team.
Who will win
Washington in 6 … if Butler, Jamison & Arenas are all healthy (i.e. 25+ MPG).
Deep, athletic, talented roster. Solid blend of vets & kids. Control the tempo as well as any squad in the league. Team Defense and Rebounding are first rate. High efficiency Offense. Will make the extra pass, repeatedly. Will go as far as, Billups & Wallace will take them. Clear-cut 2nd choice in the East to reach the Finals.
Under-rated as a group. Athletic & physical with a solid commitment to Rebounding and Team Defense. 2nd half surge keyed by solid contributions from youngsters Young-T, Williams-L, Carney-R and Smith-J. Bench isstrong enough to compete successfully at this level. Unfortunate to be match-up against the Pistons.
Who will win
Detroit in 5 … although the Sixers might be talented enough to force a Game 6.
Points Differential Rank is keyed by 3pt shooting & number of trips to the FT line. Team Defense and Rebounding are solid; not spectacular. Offense is inside out, with D12 & a host of capable ‘Marksmen’. Will go as far as Turkoglu, Lewis, Bogans, Evans & Dooling will take them. Must minimize TO’s by Nelson & Arroyo.
3 solid players (i.e. Bosh, Calderon & Nesterovic) plus an erratic ‘Group of Seven’ (erstwhile individual artists known as TJ, AP, ‘the Mad Argentine’, ‘the Shootist’, Apollo33, Hump & Il Mago). At ‘the top’ of the league in 3pt shooting %; at ‘the bottom’ in FTA/game. Rebounding & Team Defense are weaknesses. Capable of winning this series … if Orlando mis-fires.
Who will win
Orlando in 7 … although Stan Van Gundy might be good enough to wrap it up in fewer.
When healthy: (i) the deepest, most talented team in the NBA; and, (ii) the best Offense in the league. Rebounding is solid. Team Defense depends on the availability of Bynum. With AB, it is first rate; without him, it is not good enough to win the title this year. Will be a force for years to come, if found wanting this go round. Fisher’s stability is the key.
Offensive pyrotechnics from Iverson, Melo, J.R. & Kleiza. Defense & Rebounding are strictly second rate, despite the individual work of Camby, Najera & K-Mart. The ‘little boys in blue’ of the NBA. When good, they’re good; when bad they’re really bad … frequently within the same game. Enough talent to lose 4 single-digit games.
Who will win
L.A. in 5 … although without Bynum the Nuggets might win 2 home games.
The best Defense in the NBA. Committed to Rebounding. Share the ball on Offense as well as any team in the league. 3 All-Star players (i.e. Garnett, Pierce & Allen-R) and a plethora of effective ‘role guys’ off the bench. Have everything it takes to win the NBA championship this year. Clear-cut favourites.
The best home record in the NBA (37-4). PG (Williams-D) is first rate. Deep & physical team. Committed to Rebounding. Bench players are first rate. Struggle on the road this year, without the leadership of Fisher-D, with the 2nd unit. High % Offense must get solid 3pt shooting from Okor & Korver. Team Defense can be erratic away from home.
Who will win
Utah in 6 … although the Rockets are ‘tough enough’ to win a game 7 this year.
PG, Chris Paul, is first rate. Team Defense is solid. Committed to Rebounding. Share the ball on Offense, led by the mastery of CP3.Must get high % outside shooting from Peja S, to spread the floor. Lacking playoff experience. Will go as far as David West (their 2nd all-star caliber player) & Byron Scott (matching wits vs Avery Johnson), will take them. Can win the series … if it gets to game 7.
Get the best possible match-up for their team, in the 1st round. Bitterly remember last year’s embarrassing loss to G-State. Ready for bear this go round. Rebounding is solid. Team Defense is solid. Must control the Offensive tempo.Bench is solid. Can beat anyone in the Western Conference … except L.A. & San Antonio (when those two squads are healthy).
Who will win
Dallas in 6 … as the Hornets have to learn how to lose first before they can win.
Key injuries to Duncan, Parker & Ginobili have affected their customary regular season efficiency. When healthy, still as good Defensively & Rebounding as any squad in the NBA.Always make the extra pass on Offense.A bevy of effective ‘role guys’ off the bench. Have everything it takes to win the NBA championship again this year, if healthy.
A better chance of winning the title than prior editions, with a stronger commitment to Team Defense & Rebounding than before. Unfortunately, for the Suns, each of the other top teams in the West has improved more than Phoenix, whose high efficiency Offense remains the strength of the team. The Suns are finally moving in the right direction but their window of opportunity is closing quickly.
Who will win
San Antonio in 7 … although it could be fewer, pending Grant Hill’s injury status.
Enjoy what should be absolutely terrific basketball!
The NBA Playoffs start tomorrow afternoon and the final Quality Ratings (QR) & Quality Index Rankings (QIR) for the 2007-2008 regular season are now etched in stone.
NBA Playoff Teams 2007-2008 Quality Rating & Quality Index Rankings (End of Regular Season)
TEAM
W-L
Win%
PDR
PAR
RDR
QR
QIR
EC
WC
Boston
66-16
.805 ↑
1
2
3
6
1
1
Detroit
59-23
.720 ↑
2
1
7
10
2
2
Houston
55-27
.671 ↑
9
4
2
15
3
5
New Orleans
56-26
.683 ↓
6
5
10
21
T-4
2
Dallas
51-31
.622 ↓
10
6
5
21
T-4
7
Utah
54-28
.659 −
4
13
4
21
T-4
4
San Antonio
56-26
.683 ↓
8
3
12
23
7
3
Cleveland
45-37
.549 ↓
16
9
1
26
8
4
Philadelphia
40-42
.488 ↓
14
7
6
27
9
7
LA Lakers
57-25
.695 ↑
3
19
8
30
10
1
Orlando
52-30
.634 ↑
5
11
16
32
11
3
Atlanta
37-45
.451 ↓
19
15
9
43
13
8
Washington
43-39
.524 ↑
15
12
14
41
12
5
Toronto
41-41
.500 ↓
12
10
22
44
14
6
Phoenix
55-27
.671 ↑
7
25
25
57
15
6
Denver
50-32
.610 −
11
29
21
61
16
8
Legend: W-L – Won Loss Record; Win% – Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Rank; PAR – Points Allowed Rank; RDR – Rebound Differential Rank; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking; EC – Eastern Conference Playoff Position; WC – Western Conference Playoff Position Note: 1. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion and Finalist has had a QR ≤ 34.
2. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion has had a QIR ≤ #9.
3. Since 2000-2001 6 of the 7 NBA Champions have had a QIR ≤ #4.
According to the QIR, there’s a solid chance that this year’s eventual NBA champion will be one of (1) Boston, (2) Detroit, (3) Houston, (T-4) New Orleans, (T-4) Dallas or (T-4) Utah.
However, much like 1994-1995, when the Houston Rockets won the NBA championship as the #6 seed in the Western Conference, after an injury-plagued regular season campaign, and 2000-2001, when the L.A. Lakers played a significant number of regular season games without Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher & Ron Harper, before winning their final 8 in a row and then going 15-1 in the post-season … given the key injuries sustained at different times this year by (A) Tim Duncan, Tony Parker & Manu Ginobili, and (B) Andrew Bynum … it should not be a surprise to anyone if either (7) San Antonio or the (10) L.A. Lakers – both of which are ’Top 9′ teams with a healthy roster – rise to challenge and win the title this year.
