What Game 7′s are made of

10 reasons San Antonio is going to win tonight’s Game 7

 

10. The Tony Parker vs Chris Paul match-up will be played to a draw.

9. The Bruce Bowen vs Peja Stojakovic match-up will be won by the ‘Karate Kid’.

8. Joey Crawford is not on tonight’s officiating crew.

7. Michael Finley and Brent Barry are accustomed to making big shots in big games.

6. Tim Duncan has yet to play a good “away game”. Tonight, he’s due.

5. Three PFs (Thomas-K, Oberto-F & Horry-R) are better than one (West-D).

4. Ime Udoka is not going to waste valuable possessions by taking ill-advised shots.

3. When the Hornets “go small” the Spurs will counter, “going BIG” at the guard spots.

2. The Spurs are mentally tougher than this inexperienced Hornets team.

1. GINOBILI!!!

 

10 reasons New Orleans is going to win tonight’s Game 7

 

10. Chris Paul is a better PG than Tony Parker. This is his time to shine.

9. The 5/1 Wing Pick & Roll, with 2 (Peja) back-screening for Chandler, is a tough check for Bowen.

8. Joey Crawford is on tonight’s officiating crew.

7. One of Jannero Pargo, Bonzi Wells or MoPete is due for a BIG scoring night.

6. Tyson Chandler is the best 1-on-1 defensive match-up vs Tim Duncan, in the NBA.

5. 1 star PF (West-D) is better than 3 also-rans (Thomas-K, Oberto-F & Horry-R).

4. There’s no way Ime Udoka can duplicate his Game 6 performance for the Spurs.

3. The Hornets superior athleticism will generate key Stls, Blks, TO’s & Off-Rebs.

2. The Hornets are on post-Katrina mission, as the NBA’s feel-good story this year.

1. The Spurs are a dirty team whose ‘bad Karma’ will finally catch up with them!

 

Go ahead and take your pick.

 

Either way, it SHOULD be a terrific ballgame!

San Antonio vs New Orleans, 2-2

This is what was written, last Tuesday, in this space, re: the Spurs vs Hornets, Western Conference Semi-finals match-up, after New Orleans went up 2-0 in their series.

The answer for the Spurs
Unless Gregg Popovich & Co. finally figures out that the Bruce Bowen vs Chris Paul match-up is NOT the way San Antonio SHOULD be playing this series … and creates the Tony Parker vs Chris Paul match-up, instead … the Spurs are going to be in serious of jeopardy of not getting past the Hornets in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

6 days later, the series is now tied at 2 games apiece, after Gregg Popovich came to his senses and elected to go head-to-head with the Tony Parker vs Chris Paul match-up, from a defensive perspective.

(I) As was mentioned last week, straight-up, Parker is not going to be able to prevent CP3 from putting up big numbers, individually, on the offensive end of the floor, but … whether or not this happens … this alone is not what will decide the eventual winner of this series.

Tim Duncan has recovered nicely from his bout with a fever … which (made him look old & tired and) dramatically effected his performance during Games 1 & 2, head-to-head vs Tyson Chandler … and the other 3 individual player match-ups … i.e. at the 2, 3 & 4 positions, regardless who is in the starting line-up for the Spurs … are now tilted toward the reigning champions.

(II) As was also mentioned last week, contrary to popular belief, as this series lengthens, it will increasingly favour the more veteran team, in this specific playoff match-up, as the Hornets will be swimming in uncharted waters for the first time, as a group, in the latter stages of an advanced playoff series against a very tough team.

It takes 4 W’s to win a Conference Semi-finals series and this specific collection of Spurs is particularly well-suited to wearing down (i.e. physically & emotionally) an inexperienced crew, like these Hornets … who are so heavily dependent on a young (and under-sized) Point Guard (CP3, who does not include among his many outstanding attributes the ability to single-handedly change the ‘Rebounding Differential Numbers’ for each team in this series, which is now beginning to exact a heavy toll on New Orleans … i.e. Game 3 – San Antonio/Rebs, +9) and his under-sized running mate (David West).

The Spurs were able to separate for good from the Hornets, in Game 3, when Byron Scott made the decision to go with a ‘small line-up’ at the 9:39 mark of the 2nd Quarter, San Antonio 30, New Orleans 24.

Replacing Tyson Chandler (C) with Peja Stojakovic (F) and leaving David West (PF) as the biggest Hornet on the floor – alongside Julian Wright (F), Bonzi Wells (G/F) and Jannero Pargo (PG) – resulted in New Orleans only scoring on 1 of their next 5 possessions; while San Antonio – with a line-up of Parker, Ginobili, Udoka, Finley & Oberto – converted on 4 of their next 5 possessions, to bump up their lead to 13 points … after which they were never headed again by the Hornets.

As the series shifts back to New Orleans, for Game 5, the Hornets will need to find answers to (i) the Parker vs Paul match-up and (ii) the ineffectiveness of their ‘small line-up’ … or this series will indeed be ending in 6 games, in favour of the Spurs.

The next move … if it’s coming at all … will be up to Byron Scott.

The answer for the Spurs

Q1. When was the last time you saw Manu Ginobili look & act like this?

A1. During the 2006 playoffs vs the Dallas Mavericks.

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Unless Gregg Popovich & Co. finally figures out that the Bruce Bowen vs Chris Paul match-up is NOT the way San Antonio SHOULD be playing this series … and creates the Tony Parker vs Chris Paul match-up, instead … the Spurs are going to be in serious of jeopardy of not getting past the Hornets in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Going with the Bowen-B vs Paul match-up unnecessarily is the same sort of ‘poor’ coaching decision that cost the Spurs dearly 2 years ago in their series vs the Mavericks … where Pop insanely tried to ‘go small’ against Dallas rather than rely on San Antonio’s tried & true Inside Finesse & Power Game (in their customary 3 out/2 in Offensive Attack alignment).

Over the years, Gregg Popovich has shown a tendency to excel when he’s got the better of the two teams in a contentious series … but, as well, to NOT necessarily make the correct adjustments in a series when he finds himself facing an opponent with more basketball talent than the Spurs have at the moment across the board.

Secondly … IF the Spurs would only realize that this is the rotation which they need to be using this series vs the Hornets …

STARTERS:
PG – Parker v Paul
OG – Barry v Peja
SF – Ginobili v Peterson
PF – Thomas v West
C – Duncan v Chandler

BENCH:
PG – Vaughn v Pargo
OG/SF – Bowen-B & Finley v Wells & Wright
PF/C – Oberto & Horry v Ely & Bowen-R

so that they can High-Low the Hornets to Death …

then San Antonio will still be able to get by New Orleans in either 6 or 7 games.

On the other hand, however, if Pop keeps overplaying Tony Parker and inserting Mr. Udoka into the game when he shouldn’t be (e.g. vs West or Peja or Wells) … the Spurs quest for back-to-back championships will be over quicker than you can say, Happy Chris Paul Blog Day.