Legitimate Contenders in the NBA [2008-2009]: Part I

The 2008-2009 NBA regular season schedule has reached the 1/4 pole, as all 30 teams have played at least 20 games. Given the history of this league and …

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

… it is helpful to evaluate where they rank against one another at this juncture.

QUALITY RATING & QUALITY INDEX RANKING NBA 2008-2009 [as of Mon Dec 15 2008]
Team	W/L	Win%	PDR	PAR	RDR	QR	QIR	EC	WC
Cavaliers	20/4	.833	1	1	3	5	1	2
Celtics	23/2	.920	3	2	1	6	2	1
Hornets	13/7	.650	6	3	10	19	3		4
Blazers	15/10	.600	10	9	1	20	T-4		7
Rockets	15/9	.625	8	5	7	20	T-4		5
Lakers	20/3	.870	2	14	6	22	6		1
Spurs	15/8	.652	7	6	11	24	7		3
76ers	10/14	.417	16	8	4	28		11
Jazz	15/11	.577	9	11	9	29	8		8
Mavericks	13/10	.625	11	16	7	34			9
Nuggets	17/7	.708	4	15	16	35	9		2
Hawks	15/9	.625	12	7	17	36	10	4
Magic	19/6	.760	5	10	24	39	11	3
Bucks	11/15	.423	18	17	5	40		10
Pistons	13/9	.591	14	12	22	48	12	5
Suns	15/10	.600	13	22	14	49	13		6
Bobcats	7/18	.280	24	4	22	50		14
Heat	12/12	.500	15	13	25	53	14	7
Nets	12/11	.522	20	24	12	56	15	6
Bulls	11/12	.478	17	21	18	56	16	8
Pacers	8/16	.333	21	25	13	59		13
Grizzlies	9/15	.375	22	18	19	59			10
Timberwolves	4/20	.167	28	23	14	65			14
Clippers	6/17	.261	25	19	25	69			13
Raptors	10/14	.417	23	20	30	73		12
Thunder	2/23	.080	30	26	20	76			15
Knicks	11/13	.458	19	29	28	76		9
Kings	7/18	.280	29	28	20	77			11
Wizards	4/18	.182	27	27	27	81		15
Warriors	7/18	.261	26	30	29	85			12
Legend: W-L – Won Loss Record; Win% - Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Rank; PAR – Points Allowed Rank; RDR – Rebound Differential Rank; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking; EC – Eastern Conference Playoff Position; WC – Western Conference Playoff Position  Note: 1. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion and Finalist has had a QR ≤ 34. 2. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion has had a QIR ≤ #9. 3. Since 2000-2001 7 of the 8 NBA Champions have had a QIR ≤ #4.

Take note of where your favourite team stands today … and where it will need to get to, over the course of the next five months, in order to be considered a legit contender for the 2009 NBA Championship.

NBA’s upper echelon begins to emerge

The NBA’s regular season schedule is now in full swing with each team having played a minimum of 13 games.

As was mentioned earlier in this space, there are three tiers of teams in this League that reveal themselves on an annual basis:

1. HIGH END [above a .549 Win %]
2. MIDDLE-of-the-Pack [between a .450-.549 Win %]
3. LOW END [below a .450 Win %]

At this point, here’s what each team’s W-L record is, in conjunction with their respective Rebounding Differential Ranking [which regular readers here know is a crucial factor towards playoff success]:

HIGH END

1 LA Lakers 12-1/.923; +5.00/#3
2 Boston 14-2/.875; +3.43/#7
3 Cleveland 12-3/.750; +4.33/#5
4 Phoenix 11-5/.688; -0.25/#14
T5 Detroit 9-5/.643; +0.92/#11
T5 Atlanta 9-5/.643; -0.42/#16
T5 Orlando 12-4/.643; -0.37/#15
T5 New Orleans 9-5/.643; +0.07/#13
T9 Utah 10-6/.625; +3.50/#6
T9 Portland 10-6/.625; +4.37/#4
T9 Houston 10-6/.625; +2.06/#9
T9 Denver 10-6/.625; -0.43/#17
13 San Antonio 8-6/.571; -2.28/#24 *

MIDDLE

T14 Dallas 7-7/.500; +3.07/#8
T14 New Jersey 7-7/.500; +0.21/#12
T14 Toronto 7-7/.500; -2.14/#23
T17 Miami 7-8/.467; -5.26/#28
T17 Philadelphia 6-7/.467; +6.33/#1
T17 New York 7-8/.467; -7.20/#30

LOW END

20 Chicago 7-9/.438; -1.31/#19
21 Indiana 6-8/.429; +1.00/#10
22 Milwaukee 7-10/.412; +5.58/#2
23 Golden State 5-10/.333; -3.20/#26
24 Sacramento 5-12/.294; -1.64/#20
25 Memphis 4-11/.267; -2.40/#25
26 Charlotte 4-10/.286; -2.07/#22
27 Minnesota 3-10/.231; -1.30/#18
28 Washington 2-11/.154; -3.46/#27
29 LA Clippers/2-13/.133; -5.53/#29
30 Oklahoma City 1-15/.063; -1.81/#21

* Have played mostly without Ginobili-M and Parker-T, thus far.

Rebounding Differential Rankings in the NBA [Nov 6]

When this corner of the sports blogosphere told you earlier this fall/summer that the Raptors trade for Jermaine O’Neal was not going to be enough, by itself, to fundamentally improve Toronto’s Rebounding Deficiency from the last few seasons there were boatloads of delusional fans some who did not want to believe this specific assessment of this team, in advance of actually seeing real live NBA games this season with their own two eyes.

—————–

How could the acquisition of a former 6-time NBA All-Star …

in exchange for a smallish, erractic [but talented] Point Guard [i.e. TJ Ford], an over-the-hill, lumbering, strictly speaking part-time Center [i.e. Rasho Nesterovic], the 15th player from their roster last season [i.e. Maceo Baston], and a flip-flop of the No. 17 [overall] and No. 41 Draft Picks from the 2008 NBA Draft, who turned out to be Roy Hibbert [C] and Nathan Jawai [C], respectively …

possibly NOT improve the Raptors decidely mediocre rebounding numbers from the last few years in any significant way, shape or form?

—————–

Well … as of Thursday, November 6, 2008 the Basketball Acumen of this specific correspondent seems to be as sharp [and accurate] as ever:

[Statistics from NBA.com]

NBA Rebounding Differential Per Game 2008-2009 [as of Thu Nov 6]
Rank	Team	+/-
1	L.A. Lakers	+12.25
2	Detroit	+11.00
	Philadelphia	+11.00
4	Cleveland	+9.00
5	Phoenix	+5.20
6	Utah	+5.00
7	Atlanta	+3.66
8	Boston	+2.40
	Milwaukee	+2.40
10	Golden State	+0.40
	Portland	+0.40
12	Orlando	+0.20
13	Charlotte	-0.25
14	Chicago	-0.60
15	Houston	-1.40
16	New Jersey	-1.66
17	Sacramento	-1.80
18	Memphis	-2.00
19	Oklahoma City	-2.25
20	New Orleans	-3.00
21	Denver	-3.50
	Minnesota	-3.50
23	Dallas	-3.75
24	Miami	-4.00
25	San Antonio	-4.25
26	Indiana	-4.66
27	Washington	-7.33
28	New York	-8.75
29	L.A. Clippers	-9.00
30	Toronto	-10.50

When a certain NBA observer tells you something about ‘How the Game actually Works in this League’, in advance … it might well be in your best interests to believe what this person has to say, even though you are not able to fully comprehend it, at that point in time.

—————–

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” – Anonymous

The Better Half in the NBA: Day 1

And, so … it begins:

1 Los Angeles Lakers [W1] … A Legendary season awaits
2 Boston Celtics [E1] … Still the Champs
3 Detroit Pistons [E2] … Bad Boyz II, under MC [Hammer]
4 Phoenix Suns [W2] … Sunrise, Sunset, under TP
5 Utah Jazz [W3] … Tried & True
6 Houston Rockets [W4] … Combustible on any given night
7 Dallas Mavericks [W5] … letting Freedom Reign, under RC
8 Orlando Magic [E3] … holding strong with new additions
9 New Orleans Hornets [W6] … due for a small slip backwards
10 Portland Trail Blazers [W7] … The 2nd Coming begins
11 Cleveland Cavaliers [E4] … The King is in the house
12 Philadelphia 76ers [E5] … major moves this off-season
13 San Antonio Spurs [W8] … a struggle without Manu
14 Denver Nuggets [W9] … re-tooling their defense
15 Chicago Bulls [E6] … expect big things from VDN & ‘Mr. Rose’

Comprehending pre-season standings in the NBA

The NBA’s pre-season schedulae of games is rapidly coming to a close.

In general, how a team fares in its pre-season games … in this League, at least … provides a preliminary indication of where it actually stands, relative to the competition, heading into the new campaign.

Annually, there are three major categories of teams in the NBA:

1. Above .549 [High End]
2. .450-.549 [Middle]
3. Below .450 [Low End]

——————————————-

When you examine the current standings for the pre-season: 

2008-2009 Conference Preseason Standings
Eastern Conference
Eastern	W	L	PCT	GB	CONF	DIV	HOME	ROAD	L 10	STREAK
Orlando	6	1	0.857	0.0	4-1	4-1	3-1	3-0	6-1	W 6
Boston	6	2	0.750	0.5	5-2	3-2	3-1	3-1	6-2	W 2
Detroit	6	2	0.750	0.5	5-1	3-0	3-2	3-0	6-2	L 1
Atlanta	5	3	0.625	1.5	4-1	3-1	1-2	4-1	5-3	W 1
Philadelphia	4	3	0.571	2.0	4-3	4-1	1-2	3-1	4-3	W 1
Indiana	4	4	0.500	2.5	1-0	1-0	3-1	1-3	4-4	W 1
New York	3	3	0.500	2.5	3-3	3-3	0-2	3-1	3-3	L 1
Toronto	4	4	0.500	2.5	1-1	1-1	2-3	2-1	4-4	L 2
Chicago	3	4	0.429	3.0	0-1	0-1	1-3	2-1	3-4	W 2
New Jersey	2	4	0.333	3.5	1-4	0-4	1-3	1-1	2-4	L 4
Washington	2	4	0.333	3.5	0-1	0-0	0-2	2-2	2-4	W 1
Cleveland	2	5	0.286	4.0	2-3	0-1	1-3	1-2	2-5	L 1
Miami	1	5	0.167	4.5	0-3	0-1	1-3	0-2	1-5	L 1
Milwaukee	1	6	0.143	5.0	0-2	0-2	1-3	0-3	1-6	L 2
Charlotte	0	8	0.000	6.5	0-4	0-4	0-2	0-6	0-8	L 8
Western Conference
Western	W	L	PCT	GB	CONF	DIV	HOME	ROAD	L 10	STREAK
New Orleans	7	0	1.000	0.0	2-0	1-0	4-0	3-0	7-0	W 7
Minnesota	6	2	0.750	1.5	2-1	2-1	3-1	3-1	6-2	W 1
Denver	4	1	0.800	2.0	2-1	2-1	3-0	1-1	4-1	W 1
Houston	5	2	0.714	2.0	5-0	3-0	3-1	2-1	5-2	W 3
L.A. Lakers	5	2	0.714	2.0	1-2	1-1	5-2	0-0	5-2	W 5
Phoenix	5	2	0.714	2.0	3-0	1-0	2-1	3-1	5-2	W 3
Golden State	4	2	0.667	2.5	2-1	0-0	3-0	1-2	4-2	W 2
L.A. Clippers	4	3	0.571	3.0	2-2	2-1	0-3	4-0	4-3	L 2
Portland	4	3	0.571	3.0	3-3	0-2	2-2	2-1	4-3	L 1
Utah	4	3	0.571	3.0	3-2	2-1	1-1	3-2	4-3	W 2
Dallas	4	4	0.500	3.5	1-0	0-0	2-2	2-2	4-4	L 2
San Antonio	3	3	0.500	3.5	0-2	0-2	1-2	2-1	3-3	L 1
Memphis	2	6	0.250	5.5	0-2	0-2	2-2	0-4	2-6	L 4
Oklahoma City	1	5	0.167	5.5	0-4	0-1	0-1	1-4	1-5	L 2
Sacramento	1	7	0.125	6.5	1-7	0-2	1-3	0-4	1-7	L 6

——————————————

what you see, with only 4 days left, is generally speaking fairly representative of what you should now expect to get over the course of the 82-game regular season from these teams, in a broad sense.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Above .549
Orlando, Detroit, Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia

.450-.549
Indiana, New York, Toronto

Below .450
Chicago, New Jersey, Washington [playing without Arenas], Cleveland [playing few minutes with LBJ] , Miami, Milwaukee, Charlotte

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Above .549
New Orleans, Minnesota, Denver, Houston, LA Lakers, Phoenix, Golden State, LA Clippers, Portland, Utah

.450-.549
Dallas, San Antonio [playing with Ginobili]

Below .450
Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento

——————————————-

Although it’s not uncommon for a team to shift from the High End to the Middle over the course of the regular season; it is rare for a team to move from the High End to the Low End … and vice versa … once the regular season starts unless, of course, it has to play [or is playing currently] without 1 or more of its marquee players for an extending number of games.

What is usually the most interesting thing to see, however, over the course of the 82-game regular season, is which few teams are able to elevate their performance (i) from the Middle into the High End, and (ii) from the Low End into the Middle … automatically making them one of the ‘Feel Good’ stories of the year; and, which few teams, if any, will go in the opposite direction … automatically making them one of the ‘Biggest Disappointment’ stories.

Into which specific category does it look as though your favourite team is going to fit this season?

High End now that stays in the High End
High End now that drops down into the Middle
Middle now that steps up into the High End
Middle now that stays in the Middle
Middle now that drops down into the Low End
Low End now that steps up into the Middle
Low End now that stays in the Low End

Boston Celtics, NBA Champions (2007-2008)

Basketball is a game played in three distinct phases:

* Offense
* Defense
* Rebounding

What it takes to win the NBA Championship [Dec 12, 2007]

Teams which combine these three phases of the game, in the most well-balanced way, succeed … on and off the court.

Quality Rating (QR) is a simple measure which combines the:

* Points Scored Differential Ranking (PSDR)
* Points Allowed Ranking (PAR)
* Rebounding Differential Ranking (RDR)

to produce a Quality Index Ranking for each of the 16 teams which eventually make the playoffs in the NBA.

Legitimate Contenders in the NBA, Part I [Dec 18, 2007]

Since the early part of the 2007-2008 regular season schedule, the Celtics established themselves as THE dominant team in the League; at one juncture, ranking #1 in all three measures (i.e. PSDR, PAR & RDR) and with a QR of 3 …

Legitimate Contenders in the NBA: Part V [Apr 18, 2008]

which, fundamentally, did not change throughout the balance of the season.

Most NBA observers fail to understand the value of Rebounding & Defense at the highest level of competition.

Most NBA observers fail to understand the value of Individual Match-ups & Mis-matches in determining Winners & Losers within a specific game.

Most NBA observers fail to understand the value of a Core Covenant built upon Rebounding, Defense, Individual Match-ups and the concepts of Shared (Unselfish) Offense, Teamwork and Ubuntu!

Red Auerbach understood these things.
Bill Russell understands these things.

So, now, does Danny Ainge …
and Doc Rivers,
and Thom Thibodeau, Armond Hill, Kevin Eastman & Clifford Ray,
and Bryan Doo, Walter Norton & Ed Lacerte,
and Paul Pierce, Ray Allen & Kevin Garnett,
and Kendrick Perkins & Rajon Rondo,
and James Posey, Eddie House & Scott Pollard,
and Tony Allen, Leon Powe & Brian Scalabrine,
and Glen Davis & Gabe Pruitt,
and PJ Brown & Sam Cassell.

As did Grady Rivers.

Kudos to the Men in Green … on a job supremely well done, from worst to first!

When things get bad … lean in

Doc Rivers’ Post-Game Presser following the Celtics stunning Game 4 comeback, on the road, encompasses everything these Boston Celtics stand for … and represents what they hope to achieve with a Game 6 victory this evening … i.e. the 17th World Championship in the history of their franchise.

What the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics Are All About

(watch the vid clip through to the end)

Enjoy this evening’s Game 6!

P.S. Sincere apologies to the regular readers for not being to keep up to-date with the goings-on in the world of sports since last week. Unfortunately, everybody has to go on the DL from time-to-time and these last few days have been my time there. Not to worry though, all should be back to normal soon.

NBA Finals – Game 4 Recap: Do you believe?

Game 4 Info - LAL 91, Bos 97

At the start of last night’s 4th quarter, ABC’s broadcast showed what Doc Rivers had said to his team at earlier points during the game:

Doc #1 (standing, to team in huddle): We got to compete if we want to win … we can’t pout and mope … we got to compete … alright, let’s go!

Doc #2 (sitting, to team while looking at Eddie House): Do you believe? Alright, let’s go.

Doc #3 (standing, to Kevin Garnett, as he subbed out): Never stop believing, baby.

=======================

As the 2nd half developed and the Celtics gradually clawed their way back into the game, after being down by 21 points at the end of the 1st quarter (an historic deficit for a NBA Finals game) and 24 points during the 2nd frame … you just knew that you were witnessing an all-time classic which was destined to be talked about forever and a day by those who follow the NBA.

From the perspective of this corner … and, given what’s been written here since the Celtics/Lakers match-up was determined … there is only one word that NEEDS to be said, with Boston now leading 3-1.

Ubuntu!

NBA Finals: Game 3 … post mortem

As was mentioned yesterday in this space …

What the Lakers need to do to win Game 3

the individual game winners in this series will be decided by whichever team wins the ‘Battle on the Boards’ (i.e. Rebounding Differential).

When the Lakers do what they did last night …

(Individual + Team = Total Rebounds)

Game 3 – W vs Boston/ LAL 44 + 13 = 57; Bost 45 + 11 = 56 (Adv LAL)

they are going to ‘Win the Wars’ , in this series.

Game info – Final Score: LAL 87, Bos 81

============================

When it comes to understanding which so-called ‘NBA experts’ know the game … others are invited to read the full transcript of a 1st-class Live Blogging Event, like this one …

NBA Finals, Game 3: Live Blog

hosted by LABalltalk.com, that actually allows a participating blogger to express what s/he knows about the game, as it’s actually happening.

Kudos to Daniel!

What the Lakers need to do to win Game 3

When two teams as good as the Celtics & the Lakers hook-up in the NBA Finals, it’s a simple game for astute observers to handicap correctly.

These were the Lakers results during their Conference Finals match-up vs San Antonio, another top flight team this season with a Positive (+) Rebounding Differential.

(Individual + Team = Total Rebounds)

Game 1 – W vs San Antonio/ LAL 41 + 11 = 52; Sas 42 + 10 = 52 (Even)
Game 2 - W vs San Antonio/LAL 44 + 5 = 49; Sas 36 + 11 = 47 (Adv LAL)
Game 3 - L @ San Antonio/SAS 39 + 6 = 45; Lal 42 + 11 = 53 (Adv Lal); SA 55.3% 3FGA
Game 4 – W @ San Antonio/SAS 37 + 6 = 43; Lal 46 + 10 = 56 (Adv Lal)
Game 5 – W vs San Antonio/LAL 39 + 7 = 46; Sas 42 + 4 = 46 (Even)

What is clearly evident when you examine those five games is that the Lakers are quite capable of ‘holding their own’ on the boards with another top tier NBA team that places a premium on ‘Rebounding the Ball’ … and that, when the Lakers win or break even in this specific ‘Battle Within the Game’, they are also going to ‘Win The War’ that game (barring some type of unusual occurence, e.g. SA shooting 55.3% on 3FGA).

Q1. What’s the major problem the Lakers face in tonight’s game?

A1. The Boston Celtics are simply NOT the San Antonio Spurs, and are a much better Rebounding team, in their own right, than last year’s champions.

The Lakers will have their hands full trying to contain the Celtics forces on the glass but it says, in this corner, when the Purple & Gold do this tonight, they will get themselves right back in the hunt for the 2007-2008 NBA championship.