NBA Playoffs: Series Calls in Review

For those of you keeping score at home … there are any number of pseudo ‘NBA Experts’ in the blogosphere today but … as far as I know … none of these forecasted correctly 12 of 13 ’Series Calls’ (92.3%) during the 2007-2008 NBA Playoffs.

When it comes to ascertaining which so-called ‘experts’ have an accurate understanding of the NBA (or not), as the old saying goes,

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.”

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1st Round

EASTERN CONFERENCE
[1] Celtics vs [8] Hawks … CELTICS (in 4) … Won, 1-0
[4] Cavaliers vs [5] Wizards … WIZARDS (in 6), if Arenas, Jamison & Butler are all healthy; if not, CAVALIERS … Won, 2-0

[2] Pistons vs [7] 76ers … PISTONS (in 5) … Won, 3-0
[3] Magic vs [6] Raptors … MAGIC (in 7) … Won, 4-0

WESTERN CONFERENCE
[1] Lakers vs [8] Nuggets … LAKERS (in 5) … Won, 5-0
[4] Jazz vs [5] Rockets … JAZZ (in 6) … Won, 6-0

[2] Hornets vs [7] Mavericks … MAVERICKS (in 6) … Lost, 6-1
[3] Spurs vs [6] Suns … SPURS (in 7) … Won, 7-1

2nd Round

EASTERN CONFERENCE
[1] Celtics vs [4] Cavaliers … CELTICS (in 7) … Won, 8-1
[2] Pistons vs [3] Magic … PISTONS (in 4) … Won, 9-1

WESTERN CONFERENCE
[1] Lakers vs [4] Jazz … LAKERS (in 7) … Won, 10-1
[2] Hornets vs [3] Spurs … SPURS (in 6 or 7) … Won, 11-1

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
[1] Celtics vs [2] Pistons … NO SERIES CALL

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
[1] Lakers vs [3] Spurs … NO SERIES CALL

NBA FINALS
[1] Celtics vs [1] Lakers … CELTICS (in 7) … Won, 12-1

Those who wager on sports and win consistently understand the game in ways that others simply do not

There’s a good reason this is the very first link on this blog which references something taken from the wonderful blog operated by Henry Abbott (True Hoop).

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A Professional Gambler’s take on the Tim Donaghy Scandal
If you are able to correctly ascertain which collection of players (a team) is better than another team and by precisely what margin, then you are certainly qualified to make decisions as to what players are worth.

Some of my most successful bets were the result of trades or acquisitions. More often than not I am able to accurately forecast how these changes would impact the teams involved.

Take the Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion trade from this season as one example. I immediately knew this trade would not work out and backed it up with a very large bet (several really) that involved Phoenix not advancing in the playoffs and not winning the Western Conference.

A sports bettor and a GM are both faced with the task of making tough decisions. We arrive at our conclusions (or at least should) in a very similar manner, both the bettor and GM are taking significant risk in that if our suppositions fail be correct, we suffer. Any distinctions between what I do in my NBA betting, and what a GM does in assessing the merits of a certain trade or move are purely superficial.

At least that’s how I feel. Whether or not anyone agrees with me is another matter altogether.

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Co-sign … to each & every word.

If you read nothing else about understanding the NBA, and the people who work in this business, do yourself an enormous favour and devour this entire article/interview … concerning a most interesting character by the name of Haralabos Voulgaris.

Worth more than twice its weight in gold … and, simply, mandatory reading for anyone who loves this game.

PS. Kudos to you, Henry! … for being first with this side to the story.

NBA referee scandal

This piece of youtube magic is passed along courtesy of The Sports Page, Conspiracy… or saving his own skin

To think that Tim Donaghy was/is somehow the lone NBA referee to be intricately involved with wagering on NBA games … which is exactly what David Stern (NBA Commissioner) would have everyone believe … is patently ridiculous and extremely naive.

A full season e-mail service for MLB games

Market Research

Are there any readers of this space with an interest in subscribing to a highly profitable Full Season E-mail Service that provides Daily Selections for Major League Baseball games? (yes or no)

To provide your feedback, either:

i) Use the Comments section for this entry

or,

ii) Send an e-mail to: khandor at bellnet.ca

Thanks, in advance.

Live Blogging Event: New Orleans @ San Antonio, Game 6

Click on this link.

Note: If you’re interested in commenting on the actual game … in addition to irreverent flippancy, rather than the other way around … come on by and participate in a REAL live blogging event!

Start Time: 8:45 PM ET

Live Blogging Event: Utah @ LA, Game 5

Click on this link.

Note: If you’re interested in commenting on the actual game … come on by and participate in a REAL live blogging event … and Welcome Aboard!

Live Blogging Event: Cleveland @ Boston, Game 5

Click on this link.

Note: Was just over at the Fanhouse’s Live Blogging Event for tonight’s game and got the distinct impression that it was a waste of time and energy … few comments, even fewer about the game and a bunch of useless chatter about nothing connected to the game.

If you’re interested in commenting on the actual game … come on by and participate in a REAL live blogging event, right here instead.

Welcome Aboard!

NHL Playoffs – Conference Finals, Game 3

The most difficult North American ‘pro sports’ team championship to win each year, is the Stanley Cup … due to the physical toll it takes on the players to endure repeated high speed collisons, along the boards, in front of the net, and in open ice situations, with high calibre opponents – carrying (and sometimes using) a stick – intent on inflicting serious harm to their checks during the course of four (4) best-of-7-game playoff rounds.

After the first 2 games of the Conference Finals, the (EC #2) Pittsburgh Penguins (2-0, over Philadelphia) and the (WC #1) Detroit Red Wings (2-0, over Dallas) are now looking to clearly established themselves as the top two remaining teams in this year’s post-season tournament by taking commanding 3-0 leads in their respective series, versus lower-seeded opponents.

While Detorit finished atop the Western Conference regular season standings with 115 points, 7 points clear of the 2nd place team (San Jose Sharks); Pittsburgh ended up 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 102 points, only 2 behind the Montreal Canadiens, despite missing their Captain and best player, Sidney Crosby, for 29 games due to injury.

However, as the scene shifts to Dallas this evening (in the Western Conference), and Philadelphia (in the Eastern Conference) tomorrow night, look for the Stars & Flyers, respectively, to re-establish themselves on home-ice, as the physically tougher teams in their match-ups with the Red Wings & Penguins, intent on evening up their series at two games apiece.

If Marty Turco (Dallas goaltender) and Marty Biron (Philadephia goaltender) can outplay their Detroit & Pittsburgh counterparts, Chris Osgood and Marc-Andre Fleury, both the Stars and the Flyers should have an excellent chance to win these next two games on home ice, as either an outright underdog or a short-priced (i.e. almost even money) favourite … which is the best that you can possibly hope for price-was, at this time of the NHL season.

Current Game 3 Wagering Line:
Mon May 12
Detroit -109
DALLAS -101

Tue May 13
Pittsburgn +100
Philadelphia -110

Odds to win the 2007-2008 NBA championship

When evaluating playoff match-ups, in the NBA, it can be intriguing to track the changes in perception of the sports wagering public.

[Seed #] Team, Initial, Current (change)

Easter Conference

[1] Boston Celtics, +240, +210 (down 12.5%)
[2] Detroit Pistons, +748, +776 (up 2.4%)
[3] Orlando Magic, +4158, +3039 (down 26.9%)
[4] Cleveland Cavaliers, +3858, +3858
[5] Washington Wizards, +8000, +5000 (down 37.5%)
[6] Toronto Raptors, +8500, +10000 (up 17.6%)
[7] Philadelphia 76ers, +11500, +15000 (up 30.4%)
[8] Atlanta Hawks, +15000, +15000

Western Conference

[1] L.A. Lakers, +447, +400 (down 10.5%)
[2] New Orleans Hornets, +1458, +1820 (up 24.8%)
[3] San Antonio Spurs, +509, +690 (up 35.6%)
[4] Utah Jazz, +2005, +1589 (down 20.7%)
[5] Houston Rockets, +3113, +4040 (up 29.8%)
[6] Phoenix Suns, +926, +959 (up 3.6%)
[7] Dallas Mavericks, +3259, +2175 (down 33.3%)
[8] Denver Nuggets, +5250, +5000 (down 4.8%)

Two days before the playoffs begin, the clear-cut favourites to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy are the Celtics, Lakers, Spurs and Pistons.

The teams whose ‘odds to win the championship’ have come down are Washington, Dallas, Orlando, Utah, Boston, L.A. and Denver.

Boston and L.A. are the only favoured teams whose ‘odds to win’ have also dropped during the last two weeks.

Stanley Cup 1st Round Playoff Previews

Bar none … the single most difficult championship to win in North American Professional Sports.

Seed	Team	Series Line	Win Conf. Line	Win Cup Line	What to Watch For
Eastern Conference Match-ups
8	Boston Bruins	+279	+2020 (#8)	+4242 (#15)	When these two old rivals meet in the Spring … it’s almost a given which one is going to advance. Another rookie goalie for Montreal. Could it be …
1	Montreal Canadiens	-309	+294 (#2)	+811 (#3)
5	New York Rangers	-119	+827 (#4)	+1419 (#6)	The Blue-shirts are the fashionable pick to make some noise this year. Always a war when these two meet. Brodeur vs Lundqvist should be a dousy
4	New Jersey Devils	+109	+791 (#3)	+1655 (#8)
7	Ottawa Senators	+233	+853 (#6)	+1892 (#9)	Fleury & Conklin are still big question marks for the Pens but, with no Alfredsson & Fisher, the Sens are going to struggle to score.
2	Pittsburgh Penguins	-253	+265 (#1)	+836 (#1)
6	Philadelphia Flyers	+130	+1107 (#7)	+2786 (#13)	The Caps have their mojo going big-time, right now, led by Ovechkin, Federov. & Huet. Flyers have been going in reverse since the All-star game.
3	Washington Capitals	-140	+834 (#5)	+1471 (#7)
Western Conference Match-ups
8	Nashville Predators	+444	+3525 (#8)	+6060 (#16)	Red Wings at the head of the class, again. Will go as far as Hasek can take them. Preds just happy to still be playing games in April.
1	Detroit Red Wings	–484	+164 (#1)	+368 (#1)
5	Dallas Stars	+178	+1416 (#6)	+2199 (#11)	Stars could give the Ducks a tussle in the early going. Anaheim played possum for much of the year. Ducks ‘Defensive Corps’ is the league’s best.
4	Anaheim Ducks	-191	+478 (#3)	+817 (#4)
7	Calgary Flames	+260	+1621 (#7)	+2800 (#14)	Echoes of past playoff failures very real for the Sharks vs a tough veteran crew that’s played this tune before. Kiprusoff vs Nabokov will decide it.
2	San Jose Sharks	-280	+333 (#2)	+481 (#2)
6	Colorado Avalanche	-101	+1177 (#4)	+2222 (#12)	A rock-em sock’em defensive affair that should see a series of one-goal decisions, either way. Will be decided by Penalty Kills & Power Plays.
3	Minnesota Wild	-109	+1239 (#5)	+2055 (#10)