Legitimate Contenders in the NBA [2008-2009]: Part I

The 2008-2009 NBA regular season schedule has reached the 1/4 pole, as all 30 teams have played at least 20 games. Given the history of this league and …

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

… it is helpful to evaluate where they rank against one another at this juncture.

QUALITY RATING & QUALITY INDEX RANKING

NBA 2008-2009
[as of Mon Dec 15 2008]

Team

W/L

Win%

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

EC

WC

Cavaliers

20/4

.833

1

1

3

5

1

2

 

Celtics

23/2

.920

3

2

1

6

2

1

 

Hornets

13/7

.650

6

3

10

19

3

 

4

Blazers

15/10

.600

10

9

1

20

T-4

 

7

Rockets

15/9

.625

8

5

7

20

T-4

 

5

Lakers

20/3

.870

2

14

6

22

6

 

1

Spurs

15/8

.652

7

6

11

24

7

 

3

76ers

10/14

.417

16

8

4

28

 

11

 

Jazz

15/11

.577

9

11

9

29

8

 

8

Mavericks

13/10

.625

11

16

7

34

 

 

9

 

Nuggets

17/7

.708

4

15

16

35

9

 

2

Hawks

15/9

.625

12

7

17

36

10

4

 

Magic

19/6

.760

5

10

24

39

11

3

 

Bucks

11/15

.423

18

17

5

40

 

10

 

Pistons

13/9

.591

14

12

22

48

12

5

 

Suns

15/10

.600

13

22

14

49

13

 

6

Bobcats

7/18

.280

24

4

22

50

 

14

 

Heat

12/12

.500

15

13

25

53

14

7

 

Nets

12/11

.522

20

24

12

56

15

6

 

Bulls

11/12

.478

17

21

18

56

16

8

 

 

Pacers

8/16

.333

21

25

13

59

 

13

 

Grizzlies

9/15

.375

22

18

19

59

 

 

10

Timberwolves

4/20

.167

28

23

14

65

 

 

14

Clippers

6/17

.261

25

19

25

69

 

 

13

Raptors

10/14

.417

23

20

30

73

 

12

 

Thunder

2/23

.080

30

26

20

76

 

 

15

Knicks

11/13

.458

19

29

28

76

 

9

 

Kings

7/18

.280

29

28

20

77

 

 

11

Wizards

4/18

.182

27

27

27

81

 

15

 

Warriors

7/18

.261

26

30

29

85

 

 

12

Legend:
W-L – Won Loss Record; Win% - Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Rank; PAR – Points Allowed Rank; RDR – Rebound Differential Rank; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking; EC – Eastern Conference Playoff Position; WC – Western Conference Playoff Position 

Note:
1. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion and Finalist has had a QR ≤ 34.
2. Since 2000-2001 each NBA Champion has had a QIR ≤ #9.
3. Since 2000-2001 7 of the 8 NBA Champions have had a QIR ≤ #4. 

Take note of where your favourite team stands today … and where it will need to get to, over the course of the next five months, in order to be considered a legit contender for the 2009 NBA Championship.

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10 Responses to “Legitimate Contenders in the NBA [2008-2009]: Part I”

  1. Dave Says:

    Why did you choose to use points per game allowed instead of defensive efficiency?

  2. khandor Says:

    Dave,

    re: Points Allowed vs Defensive Efficiency

    In short …

    * I do not compute Possessions like Dean Oliver [et al.] does
    * Therefore, I do not generalise to a base value of Points Scored Per 100 Possessions
    * How many Points per game a team gives up is a definitive number, and [for me] an instructive measure of its collective will to control the scoring output of its opponent
    * How a team chooses to “Exert Control on the Tempo of a game” and the new-age “Concept of a Pace Factor” are not the same thing, IMO
    * How a team performs, i.e. production-wise … offensively & defensively … in a higher possession game is not the same as the way it performs in a lower possession game

    When you compare the team rankings based on Defensive Efficiency vs Points Allowed what you’ll find is this:

    Team DE Rank, PA Rank

    BOS 1, 2 $
    CLE 2, 1 $
    LAL 3, 14 <
    ORL 4, 10 <
    DEN 5, 15 <
    HOU 6, 5 =
    PHI 7, 8 =
    DAL 8, 16
    ATL 11, 7 >
    CHI 12, 21
    LAC 14, 19
    MIL 16, 17
    MIA 17, 13 >
    IND 18, 25
    POR 21, 9 >
    TOR 22, 20
    NYK 23, 29 <
    PHO 24, 22
    MIN 25, 23
    OKC 26, 26
    NJN 27, 24
    GSW 28, 30
    SAC 29, 28
    WAS 30, 27

    Legend: $ – Very Good Defensive Team; > – Effective Control of their Opponent’s Scoring; = – Adequate Control of their Opponent’s Scoring; < – Ineffective Control of their Opponent’s Scoring

    IMO, from a real life basketball standpoint … the teams I would NOT like to face in a playoff scenario … i.e. when the value/importance of each Possession is magnified … because of how they attempt to Control their Opponent’s Scoring Output in each game are the ones that fit into categories [i] $, [ii] > and [iii] =.

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